European Chamber Calls on Governments to Reverse Deglobalisation 中国欧盟商会发布研究报告,呼吁重回全球经济一体化 Go back »

2021-01-14 | All chapters

European Chamber Calls on Governments to Reverse Deglobalisation 中国欧盟商会发布研究报告,呼吁重回全球经济一体化

The European Chamber, in partnership with MERICS, today released a major report, Decoupling: Severed Ties and Patchwork Globalisation, which measures the costs of decoupling for businesses operating in China.

The report finds that while the trade war has largely failed in its goal of forcing firms back to their home countries, the technology war is inflicting real damage on companies and economies alike. With decoupling dynamics showing no signs of reversing, solutions are quickly needed to deal with this new reality of ‘patchwork globalisation’.

The present and future costs of decoupling for European businesses operating in China are examined across nine ‘layers’ in the report:

  • political and financial (macro);
  • supply chains and critical inputs (trade);
  • standards and R&D (innovation); and
  • data, network equipment and telecommunications services (digital).

The impact of decoupling in these specific layers ranges from the relatively modest and manageable (macro), to far more acute and damaging (digital). This is particularly so for companies that are operating in contentious parts of China’s economy, such as those producing high-tech digital solutions. Any companies that use critical inputs that fall under the scope of the technology war, such as semiconductors and software, are also highly exposed.

One of the key drivers of decoupling, which predates the US-China trade war by several years, is China’s carefully managed interdependence, whereby it has selectively coupled in areas it has needed investment, technology and know-how. Its self-reliance campaign in strategic, high-technology sectors was accelerated more than half a decade ago when the China Manufacturing 2025 initiative was first announced.

Seemingly vindicated by the subsequent US’ instigation of the trade and technology war and its increased securitisation of economic issues, China’s leaders have since doubled down on the self-reliance campaign—exemplified by the December 2020 call to build scientific and technological strength through a “new type of whole-of-nation system”—further exacerbating the trend towards decoupling and triggering a race to the bottom. 

“We need to find our way back to closer global economic integration or risk the collapse of economies of scale, which drives efficiency and competition,” said Joerg Wuttke, president of the European Union Chamber of Commerce in China. “This will be very difficult to achieve given that, at its core, decoupling is a contest being fought over the economy of the future.”

“Governments need to quickly respond to this current ‘crisis of interdependence’ by carrying out a sober analysis of the risks and costs associated with further decoupling measures, not only to their own companies, but also to national welfare,” said Mikko Huotari, Executive Director of MERICS. “European decision makers will have to navigate a fine line for the future of innovation and technology cooperation with China that maintains open markets where possible, while finding sensible and proportionate solutions to national security and fair competition concerns.”

Please click here to download the report.

 

中国欧盟商会发布研究报告,呼吁重回全球经济一体化

2021年1月14日,北京 — 中国欧盟商会携手与柏林墨卡托中国研究中心(MERICS)于今日发布研究报告—《脱钩:全球化何去何从》。该报告旨在为在华经营的欧洲企业评估 “脱钩” 所造成的潜在影响和代价。

 该报告研究表明,虽然贸易战未能使外资企业大规模回流母国,但当下的”科技战”却对企业经营和经济发展造成了实质的损害。鉴于当下”脱钩”的趋势并没有缓解的迹象,因此,企业迫切需要拿出合理的方案来应对”割据的全球化”这一新形势。

本报告从九个不同的层面和领域,对在华欧洲企业所面对的当前和潜在”脱钩”成本展开了分析评估:

  • 宏观脱钩:政治和金融
  • 贸易脱钩:供应链和关键物料
  • 创新脱钩:标准和研发
  • 数字脱钩:数据,网络设备和电信服务

“脱钩”在不同层面带来的影响不同, 从“较小且可控”(宏观)到“严重并具有破坏性”(数字)。对那些在中国经济的特定行业领域中运营的企业来说,如高科技数字技术领域提供解决方案的企业,“严重并具有破坏性”的影响更为明显。对于如半导体、软件企业等使用被卷入”科技战”的关键物料的企业,破坏性影响也在所难免。

“脱钩”的原因之一是中国小心管控的”相互依存关系”,即中国在投资、技术和专门知识这些有需求的关键领域与世界进行有选择的结合,这一做法在中美贸易战之前即已经开始。在宣布“中国制造2025”规划后,中国在战略、高科技行业实现自力更生的进程进一步加快。

在面对美国发起的贸易战、科技战和将经济问题的国家安全化等做法,中国领导人更强化了自力更生的信念,例如2020年12月,政府号召通过“新型举国体制” 发展本国科技创新能力,这不仅强化了“脱钩”的趋势,更是引发了一场全球的紧张角逐。

“我们需要重回此前紧密的全球经济一体化,否则规模经济效应所带来的效率和竞争将毁为一旦。”中国欧盟商会主席伍德克(Joerg Wuttke)表示:从本质上讲“脱钩”是一场为未来经济而战的竞赛,因此,全球经济一体化的回归并不容易。”

“政府需要清醒的认识到进一步脱钩将会带来的风险和代价,并尽快针对”相互依存危机”拿出应对措施,这不仅是为了公司,更是为了维护国民福利。”柏林墨卡托中国研究中心首席执行官Mikko Huotari表示,“欧盟决策者需要谨慎把握未来与中国在科技和创新领域与中国合作的界限,一方面要最大限度的保持市场开放,另一方面要为国家安全和公平竞争找到合理的解决方案。”

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