Important Clarification on European Chamber's Decoupling Report Go back »

2021-01-19 | All chapters

On 14^th January 2021, the European Union Chamber of Commerce in China (European Chamber) published the report Decoupling: Severed Ties and Patchwork Globalisation, which details the current and potential impacts of decoupling on its member companies. Since then, members of the European Chamber have reported seeing several widely-shared articles that originated on Chinese social media, which cite the Chamber’s report before drawing sensational and inaccurate conclusions of their own.

Several of the articles in question have wrongly suggested that the December 2020 disruptions to semiconductor supplies to the automotive industry were due to American and European government restrictions on exports, and that going forward, chips will be completely cut off from China’s automotive industry. In reality, market disruptions to semiconductor supplies, coupled with a resurgence in demand in China’s automotive sector, led to a shortage of imported inputs needed for certain key components. This has nothing to do with government restrictions on exports to China, but rather is due to production limitations caused by the COVID-19 pandemic along with the time needed to expand production capacity to meet rising demand.

The example of this supply-chain disruption was included in the European Chamber’s decoupling report to illustrate how even disrupted access to a single component can lead to considerable losses. As the report notes on page 79, “these are the results of an accidental shortage, leaving many manufacturers increasingly aware of just how catastrophic an intentional cutting off of supplies would be.”

While the number of companies that will be affected is likely to be limited, the potential impacts can be mitigated by early preparation. As noted on page 43 of the report, “it can take just one small component, piece of equipment or software that can no longer be sourced to disrupt a company’s entire China operations – with potential ramifications for their global business. Though for most companies this is a far-off, worst-case scenario that is unlikely to transpire, the uncertainties about whether decoupling trends will intensify still cause many to worry.”

The report recommends that companies begin to audit their supply chains up and downstream to determine their exposure to further disruptions, however unlikely they may be, including intentional ones.

As such, the European Chamber’s report encourages its members to, “map out the current and potential measures that would impact your company, both directly and indirectly (through suppliers/customers) across different jurisdictions, and prepare strategies to address all potential scenarios.”

The erroneous theories being shared widely on social media in the days following the report’s launch are counterproductive and misleading. The European Chamber hopes that government and business leaders will examine the tangible risks outlined in the report in order to prepare for and mitigate them.

Download the report.

关于部分自媒体文章对中国欧盟商会研究报告《脱钩：全球化将何去何从》错误解读的严正声明

中国欧盟商会于2021年1月14日发布了研究报告—《脱钩：全球化将何去何从》（简称“报告”），详细介绍了脱钩将如何影响欧盟在华企业的经营和发展。自报告发布以来，一些行业自媒体账号陆续发布了对报告的解读文章，部分文章虽引用了报告的内容，但却在作者的主观臆断下得出了极其错误的结论。基于近日收到的问询，中国欧盟商会特此做出严正声明。

部分自媒体文章错误地表示，2020年12月以来，中国的汽车制造商所面临的半导体等关键零部件供应困难，是由美国和欧洲政府所施行的出口管制所导致，这也将进一步导致欧美全面停供中国汽车芯片。事实上，新冠疫情导致半导体产业产能受限，中国汽车市场回暖、需求激增，以及扩大产能所需的时间，是造成汽车芯片供应能力短期不足的主因，而与他国政府对中国实行出口管制无关。

这一案例在本报告中被引述，单纯意在表明单个零部件短缺可能对企业造成的消极影响。正如（英文版）报告第七十九页所表示，“虽然造成这种结果的原因是零部件意外短缺，但许多汽车制造商越来越意识到，有意切断供应将造成严重后果。”

当前，受脱钩直接影响的企业还不是很多，但企业提早准备、防患于未然将最大程度上降低风险。 正如该（英文版）报告第四十三页所表示，“对于企业来说，哪怕只是无法采购到一种很小的零部件、设备或软件也有可能导致其在华业务中断，甚至有可能对其全球业务造成影响。尽管对于大多数企业来说，这种最坏的情况似乎不太可能发生，但是，不少企业依然对脱钩趋势的不确定性感到担忧。”

报告建议：企业需要审计其供应链的中上下游企业，衡量各类脱钩风险。

因此，本报告鼓励其会员企业“评估不同国家政府出台的或即将出台的，可对企业产生直接和间接影响的措施，并就所有可能出现的情况制定应对策略。”

部分自媒体文章所得出的错误结论，与商会本次报告发布的初衷背道而驰，不实的臆断、分析更是给相关行业带来了消极的影响。中国欧盟商会希望政府和商界领袖可以基于报告的建议，合理分析、评估脱钩风险，积极准备，从而将脱钩所带来的风险最小化，防患于未然。

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