US rates have finally departed from the zero lower bound and 2016 will shed light on the Fed’s reaction function in a post-crisis environment. We expect the rate normalization to continue at a faster pace than priced in by financial markets, but this tightening cycle will remain very shallow compared to those of the past. In the Eurozone, the recovery is set to gain traction, powered mainly by domestic demand, which should make up for a still difficult external environment. However, the upward trend in core inflation remains painfully slow, and headline inflation will continue to significantly undershoot the ECB’s target for the foreseeable future. More monetary easing is a distinct possibility. Political risk is a key variable to monitor across Europe: we explain what is concerning, and what is not. In the global landscape, China will remain an important source of volatility, but the short-term macro outlook is not as bad as financial markets seem to think. The recovery in developed countries is unlikely to be derailed.

The European Chamber is delighted to have Mr. Marco Valli, Chief Eurozone Economist for UniCredit present his views and expertise on the state of global economics in 2016.  

 AGENDA

9:00 to 9:30            Registration           

9:30 to 9:40            Welcome Remarks by Mr. Carlo D’ Andrea, Vice-Chairman of the Board, Shanghai Chapter, European Chamber 

9:40 to 10:25          “UniCredit’s Outlook 2016: Developed countries in good shape as Fed and ECB decouple” by Mr. Marco Valli, Chief Eurozone Economist for UniCredit

10:25 to 11:00          Moderated Q&A Session   

11:00 to 11:10          Closing Remarks

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Speakers

Mr. Marco Valli

Chief Eurozone Economist, UniCredit

Mr. Marco Valli

Chief Eurozone Economist, UniCredit

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Marco Valli is Chief Eurozone Economist at UniCredit. In this position, which he holds since 2010, Marco has responsibility for the bank’s view on the euro area economy and ECB policy. Marco is a key contributor to all UniCredit macro publications and is very active in marketing activities, mainly intended to support institutional clients in Italy, Europe and Asia. Before being appointed Chief Eurozone Economist, Marco covered the position of Chief Italian Economist from 2006 until mid-2010, when he developed strong contacts with the main Italian institutions and policymakers. Marco's analyses and comments are often quoted on financial media like the FT, the WSJ and Bloomberg.

Prior to joining UniCredit in 2004, Marco worked as European Economist in the asset allocation department of Fideuram SGR, where he was in charge of developing models for macroeconomic forecasting. Marco holds a degree in Economics at Bocconi University in Milan where he graduated cum laude in 2000 with a dissertation on exchange rate regimes in Latin American countries and the role of fiscal procyclicality and financial instability. Marco also holds a master degree in Quantitative Finance (Bocconi, 2002). Marco co-authored the study "Global Inflation - The Ghost in the Machine?" which was awarded the Rybczynski Prize for the best piece of business economics writing in 2007 by the Society of Business Economists.

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