How in Debt is the Dragon?
Investment Driven Economy, Non Performing Loans, Built Up Overcapacity and the Weaknesses of China’s Real Estate Market
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Victor Shih
Political Economist at Northwestern University
Ph.D. Harvard University, B.A. from the George Washington University |
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Patrick Chovanec
Associate Professor at Tsinghua University's School of Economics and Management
B.A. Princeton University, M.B.A. The Wharton School |
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Lisa Mei Wang
Executive Deputy Director at National Economic Research Institute (NERI)
Ph.D. George Washington University, M.A. and B.A. Beijing University |
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Moderator:
Michael Forsythe,
Senior Reporter, Bloomberg News |
For speakers bios please click here
Introduction:
China's gross domestic product came in at 47.1 trillion yuan in 2011 (9.2% growth) growing more than expected by the markets. However increasing concerns on the debt levels of local governments, state owned enterprises and its implications to China’s still maturing financial system have been widely covered by the media in the last months.
Local governments have been borrowing heavily during the global financial crisis as part of China's massive fiscal stimulus effort. Chinese banks’ exposure to local government loans currently stays at 14 to 18 trillion yuan, but the exposure actually doubles just by including SOE’s debt, which is estimated to be on a 16 trillion yuan level. More than half of this large amount of debt will be due by the end of 2013.
Leading economist and credit rating agencies have been not only warning about the rapid growth of China’s debt levels (general government gross debt as percentage of GDP increased by 90% from 2009 to 2010) but also about the returns of the investments made (some officials estimate that roughly 25 per cent of projects started with the stimulus package generate no revenue).
Leading economist Victor Shih, Patrick Chovanec and Lisa Mei Wang will analyse on March 29th the current status of local government debt in China, its causes, the measures already in place and its implications on China’s future economic growth.
Tentative Agenda:
16:00-16:30 Registration
16:30-18:30 Presentations and Panel Discussion
18:30-19:00 Networking
This event is sponsored by:
For sponsorship opportunities please contact Betty Yin at byin@europeanchamber.com.cn or +86 (10) 6462 2066 ext 23